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UW-FRI Preliminary Forecast Predicts 2024 Run of 38.9 M Bristol Bay Sockeyes

6Sep

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UW-FRI Preliminary Forecast Predicts 2024 Run of 38.9 M Bristol Bay Sockeyes

The University of Washington’s Fisheries Research Institute (UW-FRI) on Aug. 18 issued a preliminary preseason 2024 forecast run of 38.9 million Bristol Bay sockeye salmon, with a harvest of 26.4 million fish. The forecasted run would be 32% below the 2013-2022 10-year average, with the fish weighing an average of 5.5 pounds, according to the forecast. The UW-FRI report is based on 2023 daily in-season data from Alaska Department of Fish and Game reports. The preliminary preseason forecast suggests that 63% of the total 2024 Bristol Bay run will be 2-ocean sockeye and 37% 3-ocean sockeye. The standard UW-FRI Preseason Forecast, slated for release in November, is to include abundance estimates by age class for all nine rivers in Bristol Bay, plus anticipated 2024 harvest in num...

Pacific Salmon Commission Boosts Pink Salmon Forecast for Fraser River

The Pacific Salmon Commission in Vancouver, BC has adopted an increased pink salmon run size forecast of 8.57 million fish, citing the numbers of humpies caught in marine test fisheries as evidence that pink salmon abundances are grater that the pre-season forecast of 6.1 million fish. The commission said this past week that the early timing of pink salmon this year is in line with the trend in recent years toward earlier migration timing increasing the overlap between sockeye and pink salmon migration. This increases the difficulty to access international total allowable catch for pink salmon while minimizing the impacts on sockeye salmon. To date, 31,500 pink salmon were observed migrating past Mission, on the north bank of the Fraser River. Commission staff presented analys...

2023 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecasts Anticipate A Lower Harvest

Early forecasts from the University of Washington Alaska Salmon Program (UW-ASP) and Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) predict a 2023 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest of about 35 million to 38 million fish, compared to the 2022 harvest of 60 million fish. Forecasts differ due to the modeling used by researchers at the two entities. The UW-ASP preseason forecast, based on historical catch and escapement data collected by ADF&G, plus additional stock and stock by age class forecasts, is 13% lower than the recent 10-year average of 57 million fish and 4% higher than the recent 20-year average of observed runs of 48 million sockeye to Bristol Bay. In recent years, the UW-ASP program has increasingly relied on Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) to generate forecasts based on th...