Tag: forecast

29M Pink Salmon Harvest Forecast for SE Alaska
Fishermen's News Online, News

29M Pink Salmon Harvest Forecast for SE Alaska

State fisheries biologists have good news for pink salmon harvesters in Southeast Alaska: a 2025 harvest forecast of 29 million humpies, with an ex-vessel value of $14.5 million. The prediction, which comes in the wake of a 2024 fishery disaster, is considered an average run. The forecast was released Nov. 19, and is based on juvenile pink salmon abundance indices collected in northern Southeast Alaska inside waters. State biologists said the current forecast is slightly above the recent 10-year average harvest of 26 million for humpies, and about 60% of the parent year of 2023 harvest of 48 million fish. Last year’s harvest of 19.9 million pink salmon, with an average weight of 2.9 pounds, was lower than anticipated and by August, fishermen had netted only 35% of the forecast...
Alaska’s Coho Salmon Harvest Could Be a Record Low: Industry Observer
Fishermen's News Online, News

Alaska’s Coho Salmon Harvest Could Be a Record Low: Industry Observer

An international seafood market observer is forecasting that Alaska could face a record low this year in coho salmon landings, compared to strong coho salmon landings in Russia. The observer, Robert Reierson, president and CEO of Tradex Foods, a supplier of premium quality frozen seafood, said this is despite the fact that Russian-origin salmon is banned in the U.S. and the European Union is considering expanding its sanctions to include a wider range of Russian seafood imports. Alaska and Russia are the largest producers of wild Pacific coho salmon, contributing to last year’s global production of about 21,200 metric tons (nearly 47 million pounds) from about 7.45 million fish. Coho landings in Alaska first register in July and are one of the last two species to peak during t...
Bristol Bay 2025 Advisory Forecast Projects a 49.6M Salmon Run
Fishermen's News Online, News

Bristol Bay 2025 Advisory Forecast Projects a 49.6M Salmon Run

A preliminary preseason forecast for the 2025 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery projects a run of 49.6 million fish returning to the bay, with a projected harvest of 32.4 million reds, based on data from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The forecast from fisheries biologists with the University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, released on Aug. 15, came prior to finalized in-season data for the 2024 run and the formal run reconstruction process. Study authors said it should be considered strictly advisory rather than a formal forecast, given its lower accuracy and aggregated summary across stocks. The very early forecast was prompted by the Bristol Bay fisheries community expressing interest in a preliminary p...
UW-FRI Preliminary Forecast Predicts 2024 Run of 38.9 M Bristol Bay Sockeyes
Fishermen's News Online, News

UW-FRI Preliminary Forecast Predicts 2024 Run of 38.9 M Bristol Bay Sockeyes

The University of Washington’s Fisheries Research Institute (UW-FRI) on Aug. 18 issued a preliminary preseason 2024 forecast run of 38.9 million Bristol Bay sockeye salmon, with a harvest of 26.4 million fish. The forecasted run would be 32% below the 2013-2022 10-year average, with the fish weighing an average of 5.5 pounds, according to the forecast. The UW-FRI report is based on 2023 daily in-season data from Alaska Department of Fish and Game reports. The preliminary preseason forecast suggests that 63% of the total 2024 Bristol Bay run will be 2-ocean sockeye and 37% 3-ocean sockeye. The standard UW-FRI Preseason Forecast, slated for release in November, is to include abundance estimates by age class for all nine rivers in Bristol Bay, plus anticipated 2024 harvest in num...
Pacific Salmon Commission Boosts Pink Salmon Forecast for Fraser River
Fishermen's News Online, News

Pacific Salmon Commission Boosts Pink Salmon Forecast for Fraser River

The Pacific Salmon Commission in Vancouver, BC has adopted an increased pink salmon run size forecast of 8.57 million fish, citing the numbers of humpies caught in marine test fisheries as evidence that pink salmon abundances are grater that the pre-season forecast of 6.1 million fish. The commission said this past week that the early timing of pink salmon this year is in line with the trend in recent years toward earlier migration timing increasing the overlap between sockeye and pink salmon migration. This increases the difficulty to access international total allowable catch for pink salmon while minimizing the impacts on sockeye salmon. To date, 31,500 pink salmon were observed migrating past Mission, on the north bank of the Fraser River. Commission staff presented analys...
2023 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecasts Anticipate A Lower Harvest
Fishermen's News Online, News

2023 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecasts Anticipate A Lower Harvest

Early forecasts from the University of Washington Alaska Salmon Program (UW-ASP) and Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) predict a 2023 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest of about 35 million to 38 million fish, compared to the 2022 harvest of 60 million fish. Forecasts differ due to the modeling used by researchers at the two entities. The UW-ASP preseason forecast, based on historical catch and escapement data collected by ADF&G, plus additional stock and stock by age class forecasts, is 13% lower than the recent 10-year average of 57 million fish and 4% higher than the recent 20-year average of observed runs of 48 million sockeye to Bristol Bay. In recent years, the UW-ASP program has increasingly relied on Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) to generate forecasts based on th...