Biologists Lower 2014 Bristol Bay
Sockeye Salmon Forecast

Alaska Department of Fish and Game research biologists have issued a revised preliminary forecast for the famed Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery after identifying a database error.

The latest estimate is for a Bristol Bay harvest of 16.86 million sockeyes, plus a South Peninsula harvest of 1.06 million fish.

The most recent forecast of a run of 26.58 million fish is some 620,000 fish less than the initial release, they said in announcing the revised forecast on Nov. 27.

The forecast includes escapement of 8.66 million reds and a commercial common property harvest of 17.92 million fish.

A run of 26.58 million sockeyes can potentially produce a total harvest of 17.92 million fish, with escapements near the midpoint of their escapement goals and industry is capable of taking the surplus fish, the report said.

A Bristol Bay harvest of 16.86 million fish would be 37 percent lower than the previous 10-year mean harvest of 26.71 million fish, with a range of 15.43 million to 31.10 million fish, and 14 percent lower than the long-term mean of 19.71 million fish, biologists said.

The run forecast, by district and river system, includes 10.51 million fish to the Naknek-Kvichak district, including 5.30 million fish to the Kvichak River, 1.72 million fish to the Alagnak River, and 3.49 million fish to the Naknek River.

The forecast also calls for 4.65 million fish into the Egegik District, 1.81 million fish to the Ugashik District, 0.72 million fish to the Togiak District, and 8.88 million fish to the Nushagak District, including 6.89 million fish to Wood River, 1.17 million fish to the Nushgak River, and 0.83 million fish to the Igushik River.

The complete revised forecast is online at